How Many Pinball Manufacturers Could The Industry Support?

[CC13]

As most of us know, Old Man Stern believes that there's only room for one thriving pinball manufacturer; however, I have a feeling that we could support several more. The main reason is that pinball seems to be undergoing a resurgence—we've had three new contenders enter the ring and I'm sure one of them will pan out. In addition, people seem to want something other than Stern, so if one of the newcomers successfully brands themselves as the anti-Stern, watch out! Last but not least, if the Sterns knew so much about the pinball industry, then why, pray tell, did Bally/Williams run rings around them both critically and commercially through most of the '80s and '90s?

Anyway, my own prediction is that we'll top out at a Big 6 or so. Who will they be? Here's my take:

-Gottlieb: Gottlieb may just be a licensing firm now, but once they see that pinball is, to steal a lyric, back in black, I think they'll look into throwing their hats into into the ring once more. This would be a whale of a move—not only would the pinball media be over the moon about this happening, but they could make easy money by recommissioning old tables (which would also negate any bad will generated by their blocking pinball sites from uploading their tables' documentation) and could also pick up operators that have gotten sick of Stern, but don't fully trust the newcomers. Combine the generally softening attitude towards Gottlieb's more recent decks and you have quite the winning combination. Expect Gottlieb to be the market leader in location sales in 2-5 years should they decide to give the silver ball another go.

-Heighway: Heighway took some flack for changing the theme of their first table from Circe's Animal House (which would have been awesome) to Full Throttle (High Speed 2 invalidated any future need for car-related pins, IMO, though Corvette does look like a fantastic deck). Still, having privileged access to the European market is not to be underestimated, so they'll be a big player, especially if they can cross the pond and be a bit less wishy-washy about their themes.

-Jersey Jack: Of the three newcomers, Jersey Jack have the most developed business plan, not to mention the most publicity. WOZ has gotten fantastic press from absolutely everything I've seen, so barring a disaster, they should have plenty of goodwill from the pinheads going forward. Look for them to start slowly, but just build and build and build.

-Skit-B: I can't quite put my fingers on Skit-B's pulse. We've certainly heard the least about them and it's been a while since their last update. Nevertheless, Predator looks as though it has great potential, so don't count them out just yet. They'll be in the mix somewhere, but I certainly couldn't tell you exactly.

-Stern: They've been around far too long to imagine the industry without them, but I don't see much good for Stern in the near future. Between repeated criticisms for the cheap feels of their tables, disaffection with the constant blockbuster & classic rock themes and the period of adjustment to not being the only pinball manufacturer in the world anymore, Stern could be in for some rough times. Expect them to maintain their industry leader position for some time, but they'll lose just a little ground with each passing month.

-Zen: This will be the most controversial of my predictions here, but I have a good feeling about this one. Nobody racks up video pinball sales quite like Zen (though not for FarSight's lack of trying), so they have a pretty sizable fanbase built in should they choose to go down this road. Also, they would have great synergy with the digital division—if you wanted to play Zen's analog pins at home or on the go, then Zen Pinball/Pinball FX2 would be your only real option. I'm not certain this one will happen, but if it does, then it could be a sea change in the industry.

What do you guys think? Am I completely off base here or could a scenario like this actually come to pass?

 

[Worf]

There's only room for one, maybe two manufacturers. The problem is pinball machines are expensive new - you're talking about a $4000-5000 machine to purchase. And most people playing will only pay $0.50 for a game. Maybe $1 if it's particularly good or novel, but soon it'll dry up. So you're looking at anywhere from 4000-8000 games to recoup the initial purchase price. This does not include maintenance of the equipment (think probably $200 a pop for parts and labor, plus the game is out of service for the duration), which require a new bunch of play to recoup.

So the money aspect is actually hard to justify buying a new machine every year or so when they come out. It's why video games overtook pinball in the 80s - the machines were far simpler (the joysticks broke sure, but those are cheap and on hand - whereas special parts for pinballs are much harder to come by).

So in the 90s, you had a bunch of awesome tables released, but it also killed future table sales because operators were operating them far longer - why buy a Medieval Madness when TZ and such were generating good money? After all, the machine may be a flop, will cost lots to maintain, etc. etc. etc.

Then in the 2000's, arcades disappeared when consoles were good enough and social enough that people stopped going to quarter-eaters and played at home "for free".

Then you have a manufacturer like Williams, who could build great pinball machines, but the problem was their production system. Williams' factory is geared to producing tens of thousands of machines - they really can't handle economically production runs of 4000 machines. Contrast with Stern, who is a much smaller operation and whose factory can build any number of machines - though they cost more to build than Williams machines once the numbers got up there. So Stern can survive purely because they're small enough, while Williams needed the volume. In fact, until 1998 or so, the pinball revenue for Williams was decreasing to the point they were starting to make a loss on them. (Then they released Pinball 2000 which made lots of money, but the writing was on the wall).

Why Williams didn't divest the entire Pinball group to Stern, no one knows, though it's suggested that pinball might be revived sometime later which would mean Williams still had the capability of making pinball machines. In fact, it was suggested that Williams bring back the older out of production pins that were still popular, like MM as a second run. But again, Williams couldn't do it economically.

Pinball sims on computer and tablets/smartphones/etc are popular because pinball is popular. But a sim is easy to do - it costs very little (a few bucks), and everything's virtual. It's easy to code up a playfield toy that would cost $500 in real life and there's a chance a manufacturing flaw may break it, costing the operator hundreds of dollars to repair. Well, in a sim, that doesn't happen, unless it's programmed in, and fixing it is trivial.

So it's quite unlikely someone will be able to break in and join Stern - most will stay virtual purely because it's a lot cheaper, and the public can't really support it. Plus, a real table has to balance the operator's interest (short games, more money) against the player's interest (longer games per credit). A virtual pin doesn't have to do this, so it can concentrate more on fun. Get a bad ball? Restart if you want, it's not costing you tokens.

 

[Kolchak357]

As much as I would like to see pinball machines everywhere like when I was a kid, I just don't see it happening. The collector market and the few operators still running pins is just too small a number. The only way I see this happening is if they are able to create pins that are much easier and cheaper to maintain. If you could replace a flipper in 5 minutes by removing and replacing 4 screws then maybe you could get operators on board. It just takes too much time, skill, and $ to keep pins running on route.

 

[pseudokings]

I've been watching the Jersey Jack story develop for a long time now, and I think given the number of preorders they've managed, and the quality of the product they are about to start delivering with WOZ, and the "innovations" they are bringing to pinball, that they have a very real shot of making it, maybe even forcing Stern to re-think a few things. Beyond JJP and Stern... I don't see much of anyone with a real shot at sticking around.

 

[SKILL_SHOT]

Multimorphic P3?

 

[Matt McIrvin]

I think AC/DC gave Stern a shot in the arm. It's a genuinely great table, maybe the first rock-music-themed pinball to make really good use of the source material; and it's a hit. They need to innovate a bit more, but I don't think they're going away.

Meanwhile, Wizard of Oz's playfield is so impressive that I'd really like Jersey Jack to succeed, though I don't know if they can do it.

There just aren't arcades everywhere like there used to be; in a world with sufficiently fancy personal gaming options, the economics don't work out. The ones that do exist tend to be oriented toward younger kids and centered around redemption machines. That inherently limits the size of the market. In the Nineties, pinball eventually managed to hold its own against coin-op videogames, but the whole playing field evaporated.

 

[Matt McIrvin]

...A while back I messed around with an inflation calculator and tried to figure out how much people were really willing to pay for a game of pinball back in the olden days, and I was surprised to discover that prices per play which, translated to 2012 dollars, would be in the range of US$0.75 to US$1.00 were actually quite historically common.

The inflation that happened in the 1970s threw all of our intuitions about the prices of things out of whack, which makes it hard to see. (Around the same time, pinballs went from five balls to three, but on the other hand SS machines tended to give you more playing time per ball than EMs did, so I figure prices per game are probably the thing to look at.)

Most non-fans I know look at a pinball or videogame that charges 50 or 75 cents and say "gee, that's expensive". They're willing to pay a couple of bucks for a mobile-phone game, or thirty or forty for a high-profile console game, but they can play that as many times as they like. I think the multiplication of entertainment options is what changed.

 

[CC13]

Multimorphic P3?

Oh, I completely forgot about them! I actually think I heard about Dennis Nordman joining them, but never got the specifics. After taking a quick peek at their website, you can certainly color me intrigued. It looks like they're trying to take UltraPin and make original pins with something similar, an idea I certainly could get behind, particularly since it would make maintenance far easier. Overall, I like Multimorphic's chances, especially if they can pass the maintenance savings onto operators to the tune of about $2000/P3 unit. The only problem I can foresee is that it could fall into a sort of "uncanny valley" of pinball—close enough to the real thing to be recognized as an attempt to emulate it, but just far enough to feel off to those with experience with the real deal. If Multimorphic can avoid that problem (which having Nordman onboard will help with immensely), then I see very good things in Multimorphic's future.

 

[SKILL_SHOT]

I played it at PAC PIN EXPO and the only seminar I was interested in enough to stop playing, it has alot of potential and innovation but it will be rails not tubes I was told as I drank beers with the younger dude.

 

[Kolchak357]

Multimorphic P3?

This is so interesting to me. I keep checking their website, but a finished product is too far away to get a real feel for what the completed product will be. I will be watching to see what D Nordman comes up with in terms of design. If he finds a way to create pop bumpers and use that screen in an interesting way, this may be the answer for me.

 

[CC13]

I've been watching the Jersey Jack story develop for a long time now, and I think given the number of preorders they've managed, and the quality of the product they are about to start delivering with WOZ, and the "innovations" they are bringing to pinball, that they have a very real shot of making it, maybe even forcing Stern to re-think a few things. Beyond JJP and Stern... I don't see much of anyone with a real shot at sticking around.

So you don't think Heighway or Skit-B can hang around, then? I could be talked into not believing in the latter, but Heighway seem to mostly have their stuff together, not to mention the easier access to Europe, as I mentioned in the OP. I do think there is an upper limit to how popular these types of things can be in the age of hi-def this and iEverything that, but I'm not sure that we've reached it yet, if only because no one manufacturer can be all things to all people.

 

[pseudokings]

So you don't think Heighway or Skit-B can hang around, then? I could be talked into not believing in the latter, but Heighway seem to mostly have their stuff together, not to mention the easier acces to Europe, as I mentioned in the OP. I do think there is an upper limit to how popular these types of things can be in the age of hi-def this and iEverything that, but I'm not sure that we've reached it yet, if only because no one manufacturer can be all things to all people.

I think Heighway and Skit-B are trying to make (and haven't really done anything yet) a bare bones table. Heighway, with the hope, it seems of selling them to bars in Europe, and Skit-B with making sort of a glorified hobbyists product. Don't get me wrong, with all the money I could want I'd pre-order a table from each for sure, but...

Stern is established and has real Bally/Williams era talent on staff, and JJP may be new but everything about what they are doing (except maybe table layout/design - which is open to debate) is about evolving pinball into a more modern product, with a hint of luxury to it, and they have a pretty solid talent lineup too. They aren't making it cheap, in fact they are quite literally making a better (physical) product than has ever been done before in pinball. Direct print. Better cab construction. LCD instead of DMD. Redesigned and reenforced parts. Etc. They have well over 1000+ preorders for their first table, have announced a second which is likely to be an even bigger hit (based off of relative current license interest), and mean to make a top quality product and stick around for the long haul. I think they can. I hope they can. And I want Stern to steal all their good ideas, and for both of them to be around for decades to come if at all possible. As for Heighway, Skit-B, and everybody else trying to get started, more power to 'em, but none of it really looks... serious enough... to me to really last.

 

[ClaudeHenrySmoot]

It's a real shame someone "fresh" can't come in and turn the +75 year old engineering/manufacturing process upside down and give us a new modern/affordable table. I am not horribly electronically inclined, however, you'd think there'd be a better/cheaper way to do it. Of course some would argue TPA does that very thing, but real pinball is real pinball.

I'm talking something drastic here... drastic as in these new flexible displays that are being developed - something completely ground-breaking. I'd hope someone is asking these questions, but who knows. Pinball isn't necessarily bursting with cutting edge R&D. Questions like:

- What's the biggest expense and how can we reduce it?
- Can a playfield be made from "x" material?
- Can we automate portions of the assembly line?
- Can we replace the "miles of wire" with cheaper alternatives?

If I could buy a NIB quality design for $2-3k, I'd be ordering one today. Anything above that just doesn't fit into my agenda at this time.

(And no, Stern's "The Pin" doesn't count )

 

[CC13]

It's a real shame someone "fresh" can't come in and turn the +75 year old engineering/manufacturing process upside down and give us a new modern/affordable table. I am not horribly electronically inclined, however, you'd think there'd be a better/cheaper way to do it. Of course some would argue TPA does that very thing, but real pinball is real pinball.

I'm talking something drastic here... drastic as in these new flexible displays that are being developed - something completely ground-breaking. I'd hope someone is asking these questions, but who knows. Pinball isn't necessarily bursting with cutting edge R&D. Questions like:

- What's the biggest expense and how can we reduce it?
- Can a playfield be made from "x" material?
- Can we automate portions of the assembly line?
- Can we replace the "miles of wire" with cheaper alternatives?

If I could buy a NIB quality design for $2-3k, I'd be ordering one today. Anything above that just doesn't fit into my agenda at this time.

(And no, Stern's "The Pin" doesn't count )

Actually, I think I've figured out how to make something like a $2-3K price range for a quality design viable. What you would have to do is use the "razor-and-blades" model—basically, you would sell the tables at cost or maybe even a little below and make a profit by selling mod kits, parts and repair services. Also, I would advocate making older pins available on a manufactured-on-demand basis (albeit at a substantial markup from the original run's price), as currently, the only way to get anything other than Stern's current run is to head to eBay (which way overprices its pinball selection) or to specialist sites (which tend to be more reasonably priced, but aren't as broadly recongized as eBay); as a recent convert to the silver ball myself, I speak from experience on that point. Overall, pinball has not done a good job of accessibility and it paid the price after Pinball 2000, whose aftereffects we've just started to recover from; steps like what I outlined above would be a good start towards making sure nothing like that ever happens again.

 

[Chris Dunman]

I think there's room to expand, even in a relatively small market here.

I too can feel 'the resurgance' but mainly this is due to TPA and the likes of zen et al.

The key here could be a move in a similar vein to the motor manufacturers these days. Platforming.

If tables could be manufactured, not necessarily to an exact one model standard but to maybe 3 or 4, there would be room to replace maybe a few components within the standardised structure of the table to configure a brand new game at a fraction of the cost of a whole brand new table.

The back glass is the same shape, allowing easy replacement. Flipper positions are the same, extra flippers excepted but they could be added. The cabinet is same bar the artwork.

Ramps, toys, kickouts and so on could be changed on a modular basis.

Just a thought...

 

[shutyertrap]

What somebody needs to do is make a pinball table spit out those redemption tickets. Most redemption games only last 30-40 seconds max. Sound familiar to most people's time per ball on a pin? Safe Cracker actually kinda figured out a way of being like a redemption game, what with it being completely timed and having no ball limit, plus spitting out the token. The fact of the matter is though, every arcade I've been inside the past few years, 90% of the machines are redemption. What I really find funny is how a game like 'Deal or No Deal' can be found both in arcades and casinos and the only difference between them is one spits tickets, the other money.

So first one to tie tickets with pinball scores wins. Just sayin'.

 

[ClaudeHenrySmoot]

What somebody needs to do is make a pinball table spit out those redemption tickets.

Stern has them- http://www.sternpinball.com/Games/pinball-redemption-kit.aspx

I haven't seen one in the wild though.

Redemption isn't "saving" pinball, but cheaper, less maintenance intensive machines would help. I have a friend in coin op - they refuse to keep pins because they require too much maintenance.

 

[ClaudeHenrySmoot]

Ramps, toys, kickouts and so on could be changed on a modular basis.

Just a thought...

That's actually a damn good idea - just like in Pinball2000. The cabinet and associated components have got to be a big chunk of the purchase. I was pricing cabs for a TPA build at http://www.virtuapin.net/ and they want $1000 for an empty "finished" cab. So if one could swap out the game field - that would change things somewhat.

 

[151120]

Stern has them- http://www.sternpinball.com/Games/pinball-redemption-kit.aspx
Redemption isn't "saving" pinball, but cheaper, less maintenance intensive machines would help. I have a friend in coin op - they refuse to keep pins because they require too much maintenance.

I was in Vegas a few months ago and went to the Insert Coins "Barcade" (after the Heart Attack Grill) to check out their pins. Sadly, the waitress said they ditched them all because they were too costly to maintain. I'm sure drunk Vegas bar hoppers are pretty brutal on pinball machines, but I guess other places have the same problem.

I did find an Indiana Jones machine in the arcade at Excalibur though. Probably the only one on the strip. But it had some broken stuff on the play field.

 

[shutyertrap]

I was in Vegas a few months ago and went to the Insert Coins "Barcade" (after the Heart Attack Grill) to check out their pins. Sadly, the waitress said they ditched them all because they were too costly to maintain. I'm sure drunk Vegas bar hoppers are pretty brutal on pinball machines, but I guess other places have the same problem.

I did find an Indiana Jones machine in the arcade at Excalibur though. Probably the only one on the strip. But it had some broken stuff on the play field.

You do realize 2 miles east of the strip on Tropicana Blvd Tim Arnold's Pinball Hall of Fame exists, right? 150+ tables, all lovingly restored and fully functioning. That's your destination next time you visit!