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<blockquote data-quote="Ulkomaalainen" data-source="post: 161850" data-attributes="member: 4639"><p>Okay, this may be a strange first post (hello everybody by the way, *waves*), but since I am crap at actually playing pinball but about this special thing nagging on me I have some expertise, so here we go:</p><p></p><p>The roulette table - always use it. If only it were that easy. Yes, you expect to win more than you lose, but there's a but.</p><p></p><p>I assume from the rules (bet amount goes up to a certain level, then down again), that these are basically a modified percentage of your score, and my (limited, points-scope wise) experience seems to support it. And now, while you win more than you lose, as soon as you have won it, you can lose more than you did before, and vice versa, if you lose the first bet, you will not be able to win as much back.</p><p></p><p>As an example, let's assume the 60% winning odds up there are correct, which would go well with 5 roulette tables - 3 wins, 2 losses. Let's also assume that we will always end up betting 50% and not getting any points in between, which of course is impossible, but for the simplicity of the argument. Then, if everything goes "normal", after three wins and two losses, we will end up with only 84.375% of what we started with, a minus of roughly one sixth of our points. (It is easier to see with 100% bets - lose once, and via percentage, we do not get it back, although we know that there will be a couple of millions we can only win, but let's stay simple). Of course, if we only bet small amounts, which do not really affect the next bet, we will win, so there is some kind of cut off percentage, if the bet is higher than that you will lose, if it is lower, you will win with three wins and two losses. This cut-off percentage (with the above assumptions of 60% chance to win and no points scored between wheel spins) is a tad below 39%. (I think I'll spare you the details of how to solve the necessary equation, unless anyone asks).</p><p></p><p>How is it possible to lose on average when we win each time on average? Well, it isn't - we will win on average. In the best case scenario we will win about 6.5 times our starting capital, in the worst case we can "only" lose 97% of it. So we win bigger, but we lose more often than we win.</p><p></p><p>So what should you do when betting on roulette? Well, as so often, it depends on what it is you want. I can see five basic strategies you can go for (and I did not make up the first three names):</p><p></p><p>1) Maximax - get the most in the best possible scenario. Best possible scenario of course is winning on roulette, so if we assume to win anyway, we will always bet.</p><p></p><p>2) Maximin - the opposite, get the most when everything goes against you. Easy as well, never bet.</p><p></p><p>3) Minimax regret - chosing the path, where the worst case scenario is closest to the best case scenario. Here again, if you do not bet, you will get the same no matter how the wheel would have spun, so no regrets - do not bet</p><p></p><p>4) Optimize your average score - again easy, the expected return from a spin of the wheel is positive, so always bet.</p><p></p><p>5) Optimize the chances of increasing your score in the long run - this is where all of the above considerations come into play. Bet when the amount is less than the cutoff percentage of your score, decline when it is higher. (For practical purposes, we should set it higher than 39%, since you will score in the meantime, which is more important when you had a low score before, i. e. your ability to win back increases faster than your ability to lose back. As soon as you racked up a considerable score though, we're getting close to 39%)</p><p></p><p>When to play what strategy (this is a general discussion, since strategies 1 and 3 will lead to the same result in this case, but they won't always do that in other cases, so I'll treat them differently. Many of these also apply to other risk taking like going for that last drop target which gives you a 50% of going STDM)</p><p></p><p>1) Maximax - when you want to end up on top of a large list/tournament. The very top - second place is first loser. Your personal odds of winning are low, in fact, you will most probably land behind most of the players playing a different strategy but if enough players go Maximax in a tourney, none of the other strategies holds up, most probably one of the Maximaxes will win (while many others will epically fail)</p><p></p><p>2) Minimax - avoid total humiliation. If you need to be in the first 100 of a 120 player tournament to qualify, this is probably the way to go. You will not get very high on rankings, but you are very sure not to become last player</p><p></p><p>3) Maximin regret - not really useful in a game/tournament setting. It may help sore losers and it will be the best if you have to explain your reasoning to somebody else, if things got pear shaped ("it could only have been worse if I did something else")</p><p></p><p>4) Maximum expected/average score - again, often not very useful in gameplay situations. Unless you do not play for highest score but for maybe the sum of 5 plays.</p><p></p><p>5) Maximize chance of improving your score - this will get you the best results in terms of average rank in a tournament (not average score, though). If Maximaxers are around, you probably won't win, but you'll be close to the top most of the time. Best strategy if you need to be in the top 15 or 20 of a larger field to qualify for a next round.</p><p></p><p>All the tournament ideas again assume roughly equal strength (or no information about other players). If you are by far the best or the worst of the bunch, things change in theory and would matter less and less in practice. Also, anyone can see that you should hardly ever play a pure strategy but adapt to the situation. Being behind by far? Take every risk you can. Finally beat the score your ex has put into the table, kicking hir out? Calm down.</p><p></p><p>Finally returning to "WHO dunnit?" and its roulette - in the end you will probably want to risk it, since most of your games will be for a high score. So most of what I wrote doesn't really improve your knowledge. Just wanted to share <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite2" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=";)" /></p><p></p><p>What a useless post, thanks for bearing with me though.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ulkomaalainen, post: 161850, member: 4639"] Okay, this may be a strange first post (hello everybody by the way, *waves*), but since I am crap at actually playing pinball but about this special thing nagging on me I have some expertise, so here we go: The roulette table - always use it. If only it were that easy. Yes, you expect to win more than you lose, but there's a but. I assume from the rules (bet amount goes up to a certain level, then down again), that these are basically a modified percentage of your score, and my (limited, points-scope wise) experience seems to support it. And now, while you win more than you lose, as soon as you have won it, you can lose more than you did before, and vice versa, if you lose the first bet, you will not be able to win as much back. As an example, let's assume the 60% winning odds up there are correct, which would go well with 5 roulette tables - 3 wins, 2 losses. Let's also assume that we will always end up betting 50% and not getting any points in between, which of course is impossible, but for the simplicity of the argument. Then, if everything goes "normal", after three wins and two losses, we will end up with only 84.375% of what we started with, a minus of roughly one sixth of our points. (It is easier to see with 100% bets - lose once, and via percentage, we do not get it back, although we know that there will be a couple of millions we can only win, but let's stay simple). Of course, if we only bet small amounts, which do not really affect the next bet, we will win, so there is some kind of cut off percentage, if the bet is higher than that you will lose, if it is lower, you will win with three wins and two losses. This cut-off percentage (with the above assumptions of 60% chance to win and no points scored between wheel spins) is a tad below 39%. (I think I'll spare you the details of how to solve the necessary equation, unless anyone asks). How is it possible to lose on average when we win each time on average? Well, it isn't - we will win on average. In the best case scenario we will win about 6.5 times our starting capital, in the worst case we can "only" lose 97% of it. So we win bigger, but we lose more often than we win. So what should you do when betting on roulette? Well, as so often, it depends on what it is you want. I can see five basic strategies you can go for (and I did not make up the first three names): 1) Maximax - get the most in the best possible scenario. Best possible scenario of course is winning on roulette, so if we assume to win anyway, we will always bet. 2) Maximin - the opposite, get the most when everything goes against you. Easy as well, never bet. 3) Minimax regret - chosing the path, where the worst case scenario is closest to the best case scenario. Here again, if you do not bet, you will get the same no matter how the wheel would have spun, so no regrets - do not bet 4) Optimize your average score - again easy, the expected return from a spin of the wheel is positive, so always bet. 5) Optimize the chances of increasing your score in the long run - this is where all of the above considerations come into play. Bet when the amount is less than the cutoff percentage of your score, decline when it is higher. (For practical purposes, we should set it higher than 39%, since you will score in the meantime, which is more important when you had a low score before, i. e. your ability to win back increases faster than your ability to lose back. As soon as you racked up a considerable score though, we're getting close to 39%) When to play what strategy (this is a general discussion, since strategies 1 and 3 will lead to the same result in this case, but they won't always do that in other cases, so I'll treat them differently. Many of these also apply to other risk taking like going for that last drop target which gives you a 50% of going STDM) 1) Maximax - when you want to end up on top of a large list/tournament. The very top - second place is first loser. Your personal odds of winning are low, in fact, you will most probably land behind most of the players playing a different strategy but if enough players go Maximax in a tourney, none of the other strategies holds up, most probably one of the Maximaxes will win (while many others will epically fail) 2) Minimax - avoid total humiliation. If you need to be in the first 100 of a 120 player tournament to qualify, this is probably the way to go. You will not get very high on rankings, but you are very sure not to become last player 3) Maximin regret - not really useful in a game/tournament setting. It may help sore losers and it will be the best if you have to explain your reasoning to somebody else, if things got pear shaped ("it could only have been worse if I did something else") 4) Maximum expected/average score - again, often not very useful in gameplay situations. Unless you do not play for highest score but for maybe the sum of 5 plays. 5) Maximize chance of improving your score - this will get you the best results in terms of average rank in a tournament (not average score, though). If Maximaxers are around, you probably won't win, but you'll be close to the top most of the time. Best strategy if you need to be in the top 15 or 20 of a larger field to qualify for a next round. All the tournament ideas again assume roughly equal strength (or no information about other players). If you are by far the best or the worst of the bunch, things change in theory and would matter less and less in practice. Also, anyone can see that you should hardly ever play a pure strategy but adapt to the situation. Being behind by far? Take every risk you can. Finally beat the score your ex has put into the table, kicking hir out? Calm down. Finally returning to "WHO dunnit?" and its roulette - in the end you will probably want to risk it, since most of your games will be for a high score. So most of what I wrote doesn't really improve your knowledge. Just wanted to share ;) What a useless post, thanks for bearing with me though. [/QUOTE]
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