Speculation: PlayStation 4 May Account for >50% of entire PBA userbase

[PinballLizard (Mark Wyda)]

So I was doing some sales analysis (hey, figured what better way to spend a Thursday Afternoon, right?) and I came up with some interesting numbers...

So according to the main leaderboards which can be found here: http://www.pinballarcade.com/Leaderboards/ , you can see the sales for each and every table. You simply click on the table, then press "back", which takes you to the very bottom of the leaderboard.

This gives you a rough estimation of every table sale.

Now it's not exact: some people have multiple accounts, while it's possible some have never bothered to register at all with Farsight (you can always play as "Guest" if you chose). But regardless, I think this gives a pretty fair look at the overall sales numbers.

What's very interesting is that tables released on the PS4 are between, roughly, 70,000 and 40,000 units sold. There are two outliers: Medieval Madness, which sits at 78,840 with the highest number of sales, and strangely enough, FunHouse the lowest at 30,180. The average looks to be around 50,000 units.

Now when we get to Season 2, which is not released for PS4, there is a significant dropoff. T2 is the highest at 22,580, Victory is the lowest at 10,430, with an average of about 18,000 units sold for each pack.

Fish Tales, Black Rose, and Black Knight 2000 have not been released on either PS4 or PS3, and sit at 6,770, 6,110, and 4,880, respectively.

That's a huge dropoff, and really interesting. Could PS4 really account for over 50% of the -entire- pinball arcade userbase?

Obviously we can't really know until Season 3 and Season 2 are released on PS4 (and PS3). Also I'm aware there are a ton of variables at play, Season 1 has been out longer, some tables more popular than others, etc, but I really found these sales numbers interesting.

 

[hockalees]

Well, speaking for myself only. I played HOF games on the PS3 but when PA came out I purchased seasons 1 and 2 for my Nexus 7. Now that I have bought and played Season 1 on my PS4, I have stopped buying Android versions of the tables and anxiously await Season 2 on the PS4. It is a silky smooth and wonderful experience. I just wish I didn't have to wait for some of my favs like Space Shuttle to show up on the PS4. Meanwhile I grabbed a couple of Zen 2 tables for thw PS4 as well. It is just a so much nice experience in hi-res on the big screen.

 

[Sean DonCarlos]

The iOS and Android versions have by far the largest playerbase. Bobby mentioned once in an interview with Pinball Magazine that iOS sales provide the lion's share of the revenue.

 

[Alex Atkin UK]

Yeah it HAS to be iOS, otherwise they would be putting much more focus on the PS4/PC versions than they are doing. Its why some of us fear iOS will continue to hold back the game from reaching photo realism and more realistic flipper / physics. Because even though newer iOS devices are still pushing the CPU/GPU power up quite a bit, they still have to cater for the older devices too.

I mean why don't we have he PS4 patch yet that at LEAST fixes the incorrect sound files?

 

[Bowflex]

I think the drop off in numbers has more to do with time. Obviously with more time you will have more people have the chance to buy tables. I am also guessing some people may have purchased and not played the game or the game has not registered…I looked at the leader board and the scores on MOST tables I have in my collection do not reflect my actual high scores by a rather significant amount, not to mention a few that did not register. Instead, my ranking is just a "?". I can also imagine a lot of people buy the season passes once the season is complete. That was Apple's concern with not knowing what would be included but lots of people will not buy something until they know what they are getting for certain.

 

[PinballLizard (Mark Wyda)]

The iOS and Android versions have by far the largest playerbase. Bobby mentioned once in an interview with Pinball Magazine that iOS sales provide the lion's share of the revenue.

That was before the ps4 version came out, no?

And if it wasn't, then things may have changed.

When season 2 and 3 come out for ps4 (and 3) well have the whole picture, because we can directly look at the leaderboards before and after.

Btw guys, I'm officially a Ps4 owner! Found one today at Target, setting it up as we speak.

 

[Sean DonCarlos]

You need to remember that the older tables have been out much longer as well. Medieval Madness has been released for 2 years, so of course it's going to have a higher installed base than tables only recently released.

The other thing is that Season 1 had powerhouse tables compared to what came after. So those large numbers aren't from a massive influx of PS4 users; they're from a greater number of mobile users buying them because there was more interest in them compared to later tables.

(And to the extent that there has been an influx of new players, they're likely from Steam. FarSight has indicated that Steam sales have exceeded their expectations.)

 

[rehtroboi40]

You need to remember that the older tables have been out much longer as well. Medieval Madness has been released for 2 years, so of course it's going to have a higher installed base than tables only recently released.

The other thing is that Season 1 had powerhouse tables compared to what came after. So those large numbers aren't from a massive influx of PS4 users; they're from a greater number of mobile users buying them because there was more interest in them compared to later tables.

(And to the extent that there has been an influx of new players, they're likely from Steam. FarSight has indicated that Steam sales have exceeded their expectations.)

Makes sense to me. Speculative as it might be, the Steam sales may be a result of what happened to the 360 version. I've got the PC seasons 1-3 and the PS4 version, and will get the next season and subsequent PS4 season 3 tables when released. Both are worth the money, but with the edge IMO going to PC for staying more current. Haven't bought season 3 for android yet, but may do so soon.

 

[PinballLizard (Mark Wyda)]

You need to remember that the older tables have been out much longer as well. Medieval Madness has been released for 2 years, so of course it's going to have a higher installed base than tables only recently released.

The other thing is that Season 1 had powerhouse tables compared to what came after. So those large numbers aren't from a massive influx of PS4 users; they're from a greater number of mobile users buying them because there was more interest in them compared to later tables.

(And to the extent that there has been an influx of new players, they're likely from Steam. FarSight has indicated that Steam sales have exceeded their expectations.)

Season 2 started right after 1 with no interrupt, so there's not much time lapse between say Attack from Mars and Whitewater, yet the sales drop off is huge.

White Water is as high profile as anything in season 1, but I will agree with you on this point.

Once Season 3 comes to PS systems well know for sure. Then once season 2 hits PS4 well know specific PS4 numbers. Because by then season 2 will have been out a good while on everything else.

Yeah it HAS to be iOS, otherwise they would be putting much more focus on the PS4/PC versions than they are doing. Its why some of us fear iOS will continue to hold back the game from reaching photo realism and more realistic flipper / physics. Because even though newer iOS devices are still pushing the CPU/GPU power up quite a bit, they still have to cater for the older devices too.

I mean why don't we have he PS4 patch yet that at LEAST fixes the incorrect sound files?

iOS isn't holding back the game. The iOS version is on a much lower detail build than even last gen consoles.

I will say playing ps4 right now, the geometry should be higher. This is last gen level geometry. But the new lighting engine more than makes up for that, looks really good.

 

[apple]

Well, speaking for myself only. I played HOF games on the PS3 but when PA came out I purchased seasons 1 and 2 for my Nexus 7. Now that I have bought and played Season 1 on my PS4, I have stopped buying Android versions of the tables and anxiously await Season 2 on the PS4. It is a silky smooth and wonderful experience. I just wish I didn't have to wait for some of my favs like Space Shuttle to show up on the PS4. Meanwhile I grabbed a couple of Zen 2 tables for thw PS4 as well. It is just a so much nice experience in hi-res on the big screen.

Totally agree, purchased Ps4 3 weeks ago and first thing I done was bought Season 1, do you know when other tables will be released, hate waiting

 

[Kemetman72]

The PS4 is gonna be gimped because of all the last-gen platforms and the mobiles. The tables look exactly like PS3 ones and the lighting still isn't that great. When are we going to get the new UI? Or bugfixes that should'nt have been there in the first place. Well I was taught if you're gonna do something do it right, but nothing's ever going to change. Now if I had the latest mighty tablet then my platform would be taken seriously.

 

[rehtroboi40]

The PS4 is gonna be gimped because of all the last-gen platforms and the mobiles. The tables look exactly like PS3 ones and the lighting still isn't that great. When are we going to get the new UI? Or bugfixes that should'nt have been there in the first place. Well I was taught if you're gonna do something do it right, but nothing's ever going to change. Now if I had the latest mighty tablet then my platform would be taken seriously.

If the title of this thread had been true in the slightest, you would think FarSight would say something about the PS4 version in the newsletter. Cue the crickets! I bought a PS4 thinking this might be the version FS would pay attention to, given how much they were hyping it last fall. Well, we are now going on more than three months with no update, it still sounds like crud (Xbox 360 version's sound runs circles around the PS4), and is about to be eclipsed by the "far less powerful" PS3 version.

Oh well, at least the PS4 has a disc version of the game-bugs included!

 

[ER777]

This thread looks to be a classic case of mistaking correlation for causality.

 

[PinballLizard (Mark Wyda)]

This thread looks to be a classic case of mistaking correlation for causality.

I'm not even gunna pretend I believe or understand what you're saying.

I'll be proven right when Ps4 release doubles sales on season 2 and 3

I think you guys are being way pessimistic on ps4. The sound is a simple bug and as for graphics, they look fantastic to me, I'm not sure how much better the game could really look. Maybe higher poly and with better assets on the inserts, adjust the light so it doesn't blow them out, otherwise I think it looks incredible on ps4.

 

[Sean DonCarlos]

I'm not even gunna pretend I believe or understand what you're saying.

I'll be proven right when Ps4 release doubles sales on season 2 and 3

I think you guys are being way pessimistic on ps4. The sound is a simple bug and as for graphics, they look fantastic to me, I'm not sure how much better the game could really look. Maybe higher poly and with better assets on the inserts, adjust the light so it doesn't blow them out, otherwise I think it looks incredible on ps4.

We're not being pessimistic on PS4, but most of the others on this thread been around for TPA's entire span of existence and so know its history on the other platforms.

Another point of evidence: If the other platforms had done that poorly that the PS4 version sales are equal to all other platforms combined, the PS4 version would never have happened, as there wouldn't have been enough income for FarSight to pay its staff and otherwise keep the doors open.

 

[ER777]

I'm not even gunna pretend I believe or understand what you're saying.

I'll be proven right when Ps4 release doubles sales on season 2 and 3

I think you guys are being way pessimistic on ps4. The sound is a simple bug and as for graphics, they look fantastic to me, I'm not sure how much better the game could really look. Maybe higher poly and with better assets on the inserts, adjust the light so it doesn't blow them out, otherwise I think it looks incredible on ps4.

I'm not being pessimistic about it at all. I'm just saying that because the tables that are out on PS4 have the highest sales numbers doesn't mean those sales came from PS4 purchases. I think both the PS4 itself and TPA on it will do very well, and both are just in their infancy. I'm very much looking forward to playing it on the PS4 once I get my hands on one.

Check it out on PSN Profiles, the big numbers just aren't there yet on PS4 compared to PS3 & Vita:
http://psnprofiles.com/games/?letter=P

 

[smbhax]

Ah good link there ER777. Even before I'd seen that I didn't think all that many people had bought the PS4 version. Not that many people talking about it really, even on this board (and more people complain about lack of PS3 updates on their Facebook than complain about lack of PS4 updates), and I never really see anyone streaming it. And this is *with* the PS4 version being free (TotAN, anyway), whereas the PS3/Vita versions are not.

The only thing close to an actual platform sales comparison with mobile that I remember seeing was pre-PS4, when FarSight mentioned the number of people who'd scored in the top 10% or something in a tournament that was run separately on mobile and PSN (ie PS3 & Vita), and based on the numbers they gave, the mobile one had had about 11 times the number of participants as the PSN one.

I guess we can sort of compare those psnprofiles.com numbers (15 K for PS4) with say the vague numbers Google gives on their Android store (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.farsight.AndroidPinball.javaProject - "1,000,000 - 5,000,000" installs. But this only really compares those who've run (PS4) or downloaded (Android) the free version, not those who've really gotten into and paid for content--so maybe the 11x figure from the tournament participation numbers is more dependable in that regard. And of course this isn't even considering the PS4 version vs all the other platforms they're on now like PC, Mac, etc.

I suppose something else some obsessed person could do is go through the leaderboards on PSN, where it shows the user's platform type, and count up how many scores there are per type. ; )

 

[ER777]

That's a good point about the free table. If you go into the game details on PSN Profiles the numbers dip under 1000 for everything besides the "base game" which is the free TOTAN. I think that's because the type of gamer that plays pinball and smaller downloadable games isn't usually the early adopter type for a new console in a hurry to get the newer technology. I think it will definitely improve over time though.

Disclaimer: The PSN Profiles numbers don't reflect everyone so they're a better comparison vs the PS3 and Vita than an indicator of overall sales (but I'm not about to go counting the leaderboard entries - where's that platform filter?).

 

[PinballLizard (Mark Wyda)]

Small update:

Well turns out I was very, very wrong (most likely).

Just for interests sake. PS3 tables Fish Tales and Black Rose released yesterday and the sales have jumped a whopping 400 units!

Now I know it's only been 2 days of sales but for reference, the game sells a few thousand on the weekend it drops on mobile and PC.

I'll keep following it as the ps4 tables drop to get an idea of active userbase and of course I'll keep watching how much it jumps with just PS3 added to the mix.

 

[Mark W**a]

So just an update.

Ps4 has been out a few days. Sales jumped about 500 units so far.

Before that, ps3 bumped it by about 1,500 over the course of 2-3 weeks.

Well see how it does over it's first weekend on ps4. Overall , both platforms account for about 1/4th the total sales combined, maybe 1/3rd if it has a strong 2 weeks, not 1/2 as I was speculating. So the platform is significant , combined PlayStation " family" is probably very close to iOS or android by themselves , but if seperated PS3 is only 1/8th-1/7th and PS4 only 1/8th-1/7th thus far, so you guys were right, mobile+PC+Mac are the leading sales drivers.

Abridged version: Mobile+Mac+PC = 4-5K units in 1-2 weeks. PS3 about 1K and PS4 about 1K (likely) after a week. Will give it one more weeks sales to see where it stands overall.

Total sales = 8,800 versus 6,770 before PlayStation 3 released, 8,200 before PlayStation 4 released.

Curious to know Xbox sales, I'll try to rank Xbox 360 but someone else will have to rank Xbox One.